Why does Erling Haaland fewer Premier League goals after December?

Is this really a thing? The stats suggest it might be

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It's often an eye-rolling experience checking who the top goalscorers in the Premier League are, and sometimes I give my own award for the 'non-Haaland' top goalscorer. Erling Haaland is one of the world's best, most deadly finishers of all time, to the point that it's boring.

But how many of those league goals are scored after winter? It always feels like he slows down each season after January, so I looked into things...

As you will see in the table below, in every single season since signing for Manchester City, Erling Haaland's goal rate slows down from January. The last two seasons in particular have produced a stark drop-off, with Haaland adding just eight goals from January to May in the 24/25 and 25/26 seasons.

Injury 5 games in December

Lean period (for City in general) + Played Club World Cup in the summer before

Does Haaland feel the winter pinch? Is it always exhaustion? Let's take a look at things season-by-season?

Goals till January: 21 in 16. Goals till May: 14 in 22.

During the 22/23 season, teams were simply blown away by this physical specimen that arrived in the league. On top of that, the team built around him at the time was Riyad Mahrez, Jack Grealish, Kevin De Bruyne, Phil Foden and Bernardo Silva. Anchored by Rodri in midfield. All facilitating attackers that cook chances wide or centrally, with Rodri in his prime controlling midfield. Haaland was the centrepiece of a treble-winning team, though there was some drop-off as teams started to cut off supply lines to him by choking the middle; but he still came good with 14 goals till the end of the season. Four of them may have been against Southampton and Leicester, but by that point it didn't matter; Guardiola had City in free-flowing mode when Haaland's initial burst till January ran dry slightly.

Goals till January: 14 in 15. Goals till May: 13 in 16

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Okay, so the drop-off here isn't pronounced, but looking beyond the stats paints a different picture. Haaland missed five games in December, and it took him a while to hit the ground running again after winter, scoring four goals in nine games. In fact, if it wasn’t for scoring four goals against Wolves late on in the season, his tally goes down to nine after December. It becomes an even more intriguing season when you realise Kevin de Bruyne was out until after the winter and Haaland found joy with Julian Alvarez behind him, Jeremy Doku and Phil Foden as wingers, with Rodri and Bernardo Silva controlling midfield before De Bruyne returned. There was a plan in place for the team that was working up until the Belgian got injured; then Guardiola was trying to figure out how to reintegrate the former Wolfsburg midfielder again. After January, Haaland scored five goals in ten games; and though City won the title, he struggled with an injury in December and took time to reconnect with a returning De Bruyne.

Goals till January 14 in 19. Goals till May: 8 in 16.

This season I find to be one of the most interestibg. The former Borussia Dortmund striker scored ten goals in the opening five matches; after that? Four goals in fourteen, even before the post-January slump. He once again got injured after December, as City had played in the exhausting Club World Cup and the matches seemed to catch up with him.

But the main reason for a drop-off throughout the season was the injury to Rodri. Haaland is not a creative player; he is the man who can gobble up goals after a chance or half a chance is created for him. Rodri was out all season, and Guardiola tinkered incessantly to the point of playing Jack Grealish as a central defensive midfielder. It was City's first 'slump' since Haaland signed, and they created fewer big chances for him and were soft in the centre without Rodri; in addition to this, it was the most games he missed through injury.

Goals till January: 19 in 18. Goals till May: 8 in 16.

Though he picked up his form towards the end of the season as City challenged Arsenal for the title, in Haaland's post-winter decline this time, the barren spell read as three goals in thirteen games beginning at the end of December till the middle of April. Guardiola was busy building a new team with club legends like Kyle Walker, De Bruyne and Ilkay Gundogan departing. Once again, you have to point to a lack of service and chance creation. City were also ripped apart in games where teams hit them on the counter in notable matches like Bodo/Glimt or the Manchester Derby. Haaland was also rested at one point in February because Guardiola spoke of him being exhausted, and he also complained of tiredness. Towards the end of the season, as Rayan Cherki became more prominent, the Norwegian returned to form with five goals in five starts. City began to peak at the right time, but for most of the season, they leaked goals and lacked creativity in the winter period.

After analysing each season, it’s clear that to get the best out of Haaland you need to build a team of creators around him. He may soon be appearing on the top ten list of all-time Premier League goalscorers, but his New Year attacking slump hinges on making sure he's well rested and fit, but also (more importantly) that the parts around him are presenting him with enough chances. His goal-scoring is heavily dependent on that.