The Friendly Wager: Back Christian Pulisic To , USA To Advance

It’s Week 4 of the "Friendly Wager" and in case you were wondering, Portugal star Cristiano Ronaldo did not score a brace in last week’s match against Colombia.

That was a +750 longshot that never stood a chance. We also played USA on the three-way line against Türkiye and parlayed a USA victory with Christian Pulisic to score a goal. With the game tied 2-2, Pulisic hit the post at 71’ and missed just left at 76’.

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Books believe it's almost a sure thing that Lionel Messi scores against Cape Verde (Getty Images).

None of the big American sportsbooks are offering a market on Lionel Messi not to score a goal. Not offering "Yes" and "No" markets is truly one of the worst parts of the industry because you never get a fair price on the "Yes."

When books don’t offer "No," they can deal whatever they want on "Yes" because there’s no money balancing the budget to create a fair price. So, books just crank "Yes" as high as they want, knowing full well that 70% of people or more will Messi to score no matter what or just jam it in parlays.

Since this concept is about having fun and taking shots, I’m eying that insanely juicy draw price between Argentina and Cape Verde. Cross your fingers and your toes for a 1-1 tie after 90 minutes. It’s anywhere from +650 at FanDuel to +715 at Circa Sports because, as it is with Messi, the Argentinian inflation is so high.

Granted, I only picked him to score in the Americans’ third group match against Türkiye, but he’s gotta put the ball in the back of the net eventually, right?

Top striker Flo Balogun will miss Monday’s match after receiving a red card against Bosnia and Herzegovina, and head coach Mauricio Pochettino must get creative. I expect the USA to be more aggressive in getting Pulisic the rock and there’s always the possibility he starts at striker. That’ll undoubtedly increase his scoring chances against Belgium.

I’m also wheeling Pulisic to score with the USA to make the quarters.